The future of online warfare? Image source (via Google).
Every time Activision CEO Bobby Kotick or analyst Michael Pachter shoots their mouth off about possibly charging a subscription for a game like Modern Wafare, gamers take it as a sign of the "gamepocalypse" (to borrow from Jessie Schell). Missed that item? Check out this article--news that was quickly squashed by Activision (here, among many other places).
I'm not here to rehash that debate. It's clear that Modern Warfare 2 will never use a subscription model. Taking something from being free to paid after millions have already bought the game "in good faith" would be the worst PR move ever. And, for Activision, that would be saying something.
The more I think about it, though, would that be such a bad thing--keeping in mind it would have to be a new game and/or property? Let's take a look at how it could work:
What it Can't Be
A blatant cash grab. I still can't understand how analyst Michael Pachter gets quoted all the time, but he's one of the ones who started this whole discussion. To my slightly more than casual observer mind, the claim that Activision has to charge subscriptions is ludicrous. Modern Warfare 2 has made a ton of money--and paying $60 up front involves the expectation that multiplayer will be free for the life of the servers.
A subscription model is just that--a new model for doing business. I'm all for companies generating profit--which allows for them to re-invest that money back into even more awesome games--but as a consumer it also has to give me something as well. Otherwise the first company to try it will fail under the weight of countless other non-subscription alternatives.
The Minimum Requirements
A traditional single-player campaign and multi-player suite retails for $60. Using round numbers for simplicity, let's assume a $5/month subscription. A good game should keep me online for at least 2 months--until the next shiny thing comes along. A discount to $50 retail makes it break-even if the game keeps me for those two months. A property like Halo or Modern Warfare would keep me for a lot longer--which could become quite profitable.
The pricing model becomes stickier for a multiplayer-only game and would really depend on regular high-quality maps being added for free (i.e. included with my subscription). I like stories with my games, especially co-op experiences with my wife (who is my biggest gaming buddy) to complement fragging random strangers online.
The price tag could be $40 for a really polished experience--putting the break-even at 4 months, or closer to 6
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